Archive for October, 2011

One Stock I am Building my Portfolio with! Of which I feel may be a High Risk, but at the same time offering me a possible long term growth investment both in value of share price threw both split’s, and dividend is

HollyFrontier Corp  Public, NYSE: HFC – formerly known as Holly Corporation, is an independent petroleum refiner that produces light products, such as gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, specialty lubricant products, and specialty and modified asphalt. Operates on two segments: Refining and Holly Energy Partners, L.P. (HEP).

 December 31, 2010,owned and operated three refineries consisting of a petroleum refinery in Artesia, New Mexico. This refinery of which operates in conjunction with vacuum, and crude oil distillation, and other facilities 65 miles away in Lovington, New Mexico (the Navajo Refinery, and a refinery in Woods Cross Utah/Tulsa Refinery.Owns and operates Holly Asphalt Company, and owns 75% interest in a 12-inch pipeline project from Salt Lake City Utah to Las Vegas Nevada.

In July 2011 had a Merger with Frontier Oil Company. Over the Past 52 week period HollyFrontier has traded between 15.69 – 38.90. During this span it also has announced a Dividend, and had a 2:1 Split.  Currently the Dividend is 0.09/1.10 which in time I expect to grow, and possible at Rapid Rates over the coming years ahead. Their may also be the possibility of a Bigger Company coming in, and making an offer on buying them out.

For instance if you read my post (9/6/2011) of this year I recommend (BEXP) of which opened at $29.31

Brigham Exploration Company (BEXP) – of which  engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas in the United States. The company owns property interests in the Onshore Gulf Coast consisting of the Vicksburg trend in Brooks County, Texas. Frio trend in and around Matagorda County, Texas. (BEXP) also has joint venture interests […]

Since this Post on October 25th their was an announcement that Brigham Exploration Company, was going to buy out all the outstanding shares of Brigham for $36.50.

HollyFrontier Financials

Not only do I believe we will still need oil, and oil refiners, for at least 10 possible 20 years. I tend to like Oil Refiners because of overall demand in supply of which has continues to grow each, and every year, and with the USA still number one in oil consumption from Cia.gov numbers. With the USA Dollar of which dropped some bit this year this may result in more demand from other countries which would essentially grow profits. Not to mention refiners do better when oil is down and Gas Climbs which for the better part of this past year Oil, has been quiet low. As of late oil however has made a climb back, and gas has dropped but Overall Long Term, I expect them both to climb. As I overlook the Balance Sheet there was a few things of which sparked my attention. One being Yes, that HollyFrontier has a solid Dividend, and has already had a 2:1 Split,Its P/E is 9.94 which I feel is quiet low.  My only concern is their accounts payable is equal to about 2/3 rds of their liquid assets, especially since a very serious chunk of those assets are accounts receivable. With the Economy as of late their could be a lot of debtors unable to pay at some point in time, or for long periods of time, even some not paying at all. This would then result in difficult paying their creditors. If this scenario was to occur they could possible drop long term assets. Over the coming months and years ahead I think there is great growth possible.

2010 Total Financials for year

Revenue at 8,322.93

Gross Profit 955.78.

Q1 & Q2 2011 Financials 

Revenue Q1 of 2,326.59, Q2 of 2,967.13 – Revenue has climbed each year since 2006 with one slight off year in 2009, which revenue was still over 50%.

Gross Profit has been Q1 of 341.97, Q2 of 520.04 – Has been solid since 2007, with 2010 out beating 2009 by 359.52

Numbers from 2010 Total Financials Down, are all in Millions.

Today (HFC) is trading around $31.50 around $7.50 off of its 52 week highs, and down $0.62 from yesterdays open.With a dividend of 0.09/yield of 1.11, EPS of 3.20, and AVG Volume around 4.10 Million which for today has only moved 700,000, and for less than 3 hours of trading left, its obvious many are sellers are offsetting the buyers, and that Volume on the day may not even meet Half the Avg. My theory being many are holding out the storm, waiting for Q3 earnings.

Currently I hold a long term position in (HFC)

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The Dow Chemical Company (DOW) a diversified manufacturer/supplier of products used primarily as raw materials in the manufacture of customer products and services worldwide. Operates on 8 Segments providing services to a range of industries, including appliance, automotive, agricultural, building and construction, chemical processing, electronics, furniture, house wares, oil and gas, packaging, paints, coatings and adhesives, personal care pharmaceutical processed foods pulp and paper textile. Its portfolio includes specialty chemical, advanced materials, agrosciences and plastics businesses deliver a range of technology-based products and solutions to customers in approximately 160 countries. Google.com/Finance Section

Dow of which over the past 52 weeks has traded at a High of $42.23, and a low of $20.61 closed on Friday at $24.76. The Dow Chemical Company Currently has a $0.25 Dividend

Currently I am Calling a PoulTrend Alert on DOW, as I believe over the coming month ahead there is large upside potential.

The Enmore stencil wall was 'sold' to the Coca...

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The Coca-Cola Company(KO)Coca Cola, a Stock that has always been known for its Great Dividend, Great Yield.

Today Coca Cola (KO) traded at a Low of $63.34 – $65.43.  KO ended up closing at $65.23, and in the Eyes of many investors this is around or close to a Bargain Price, However I beg to differ. KO of which is a company I do not see going anywhere, anytime soon. However I think over the coming years ahead this may be one stock of which will a gradual long term decline. Not because its financials are out line or anything like that. However I feel as more, and more baby boomers get closer to retirement they will be selling off their shares of Coca Cola of which will bring it down even as it continues to outperform.
Over the Past year, Coca Cola has traded at a High of $71.77, and a low of $58.55

Since 1986 – 1996 Coca Cola has split 4 separate times a 3 to 1 split, and 3- 2 to 1 splits. During this time, the Baby Bombers were in there peak times of their life where they may of had the extra cash lining around to invest into KO.

If a Baby Boomer owned just 1 share, by the end of these 4 splits they would have 24 Shares.

Split 1 – 1 Share * 3 = 3 Shares

Split 2- 4 Shares *2= 6 Shares

Split 3 – 8 Shares*2= 12

Split 4 -16 Shares*2= 24

During 1946-1964 the so called 19 years of the Baby Boom, there was close to 76 Million Births in the USA.

Lets Estimate that 15 Million of these Baby Boomers invested in Cola during that time, each buying just 10 Shares of Coca Cola.

During Split 1- they would have 30 Shares Each * 15 Million = 450 Million Shares.

During the Next 3 Splits lets Say 9 Million of these decided to sell all their investments in KO 5 Million Continued to hold there shares of 30 and 1 Million of them Buying 30 More after the First Split.

During Split 2 – 5 Million * 30 Original Shares = 150 Million Shares with a 2 for 1 Split, Making their shares increase to 60 for a total of 300 Million Shares. The 1 Million of who invested into buying 30 more shares before that split now held 60 Shares each = 60 Million * 2 for 1 Split = 120 Million Shares. Meaning Now 6 Million Baby Boomers owned 420 Million Shares which is Lower than the Previous 450 Million However lets continue on.
During Split 3 – Lets say those 5 Million held their Shares and Still hold 30 Shares Each, for a total of  150 Million Shares * 2 for 1 = 60 Shares Each times 5 Million = 300 Million Shares. The 200,000 of the Original 1 Million who double their stock after the initial Split now added 20 More shares. They now own 80 Shares Each * 200,000 * 2 for 1 = 16 Million Shares. The other 800,000 decided to buy 25 More Shares bring there grand total to 85 Shares * 2 for 1 split = 800,000 * 85 *2= 136 Million Shares. Meaning now that a total of 6 Million people own a total of

300 Million Shares + 16 Million Shares + 136 Million Shares grand total of 452 Million Shares.

During Split 4- Lets Say 2 Million sold off their shares and now only 3 Million held their shares of 60 * 2 for 1 split = 120 Shares * 3 Million = 360 Million Shares. The 200,000 of who have 80 decided to buy 20 more bring there total to 100 Shares * 2 for 1 Split = 200 Shares. 200,000*200 Shares each = 40 Million Shares, and Finally the 800,00 0f who had 85 Shares decided to buy 40 More shares bringing total to 125 Shares * 2 for 1 = 250 Shares each * 800,000 = 200 Million Shares . Meaning that Now these 4 Million people own a combined

360 Million Shares + 40 Million Shares + 200 Million Shares bringing their Grand total to 600 Million Shares. Out of the 2.3 Billion shares Available 1,439,688,448 of which are owned by institutional Investments, owners meaning now that

1,439,688,448 + 600,000,000 = 2.3 Billion Shares.

Obviously this is not a for sure, and these are all estimates, but what if there was out of those 4 Million Baby Boomers 1/3 or 1/2 decided to sell off  in a gradually during a 3 year span.

The Stock that has a 52 week low of $57.00 could see more levels close to $45.00-$50.00 range. Meaning why not wait for the storm to happen, and for KO to see Lower Lows!

Personally I believe many of the High Dividend, and High Yield Stocks will be on a Moderate Lower decline over the coming years ahead. I will wait for my Opportunity of  when to get in with KO, However I do not think that time is right now.

 

 

 

 

Mac mini

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Apples stock of which has a 52 week High of $422.86, and its 52 week low $277.77.

 

Currently Apple is Trading around $373.00. Not only do they have great products, and Everyone out there wants an Ipod, Iphone, and Ipad. Being a company with this much demand makes you more viol ital. Not only do I feel that Apple is Overbought, but I think it is close to $100.00-$125.00 overbought. Over the coming months ahead, it is obvious that there products will be the top sellers especially during the holidays. However, The facts are people like, change, and I personally do not think that the iPhone will be as hot of an item as it is right now until they change the looks to it. They not only need to make the screen bigger. For them to get into the Business  market and take full control of that cell phone sector the phone has to change. Personally I love all Apple products they continue to blow my mind with some of the things you can do with them. However there price is unmatched, there products are TO EXPENSIVE for the Average American, and I think this may hurt them long term. If they can lower price and compete with other products that are more than half the price, I think they will continue to miss out on a large market share. I expect Apple to continue a downtrend, and when it hits under $250.00 then maybe will I think about Investing in them. I would rather have my money in At&t, Verizon Wireless as not only do you get a Dividend, and Great Yields, but if Apple falls out someday in the Future, it does not matter because they would obviously have the new Hot Item, and Cell Phones are not going anywhere. Over the coming years ahead I believe these phone companies will increase in price, Dividend, and Yield which over the Long run will benefit me more than a investment in Apple. Currently I have Apple as a SELL, and have no intentions of investing in them until a change is underway.

 

Image representing Netflix as depicted in Crun...

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Netflix (NFLX) of which was a $300.00 Stock back in July 2011, is not trading at a $114.00.

Shares of Netflix obviously were overvalued, and it has showed have been overbought for sometime.

Netflix is currently at a Price now most people would want to take a look at for a long term investment however I tend to disagree. Not only do I think that Netflix has not seen its Bottom. Netflix is a stock to stay clear of until it starts to establish a better Video Portfolio. Another thing to look for is, when will Netflix start streaming in Blu-Ray. I recommend that people stay Clear of this Stock as any bad news will Rock, it. If Netflix can establish themselves in the Streaming of Blu Rays, and signing some better Movie Companies, and TV shows it will then open my eyes for a possible investment. Do not forget that Microsoft has now announced it will be entering the streaming of content, this may hurt Netflix Long term.

If or When Netflix starts trading under $80.00 will I look to a possible investment in the company. However it also would rely solely on good news such as an announcement of New TV show Releases, and the Streaming of Blu Ray content.

 

Bank of America branch in Washington, D.C.

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Bank of America (BAC) is a SELL!!

Bank of America has a 52 week High of $15.31, and a Low of $5.66. Today Bank of America has hit its year low, and I would not be surprised if this stock continues to FALL, and Quickly. After its announcements on Debit Card Fees, and all the Law Suits it is currently Facing, I do not see how anyone could want to even take the Gamble, you are better off putting a match to your cash than investing it with Bank of America. All I have to say is TO BIG TO FAIL?

Over the coming months ahead, I would not be Surprised if Bank of America, Turns into a $4.00 Stock especially with all the Crisis’s all over the world with Banks. Financials are a Stay away right now.

Development of the balance sheet of the US Fed...

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Chimera Investment Corporation (CIM) – Is not a buy, especially for the ones looking to make a quick buck, unless you are a long term investor stay clear of this stock!!!!
As analysis continue to come out, and say that CIM is a buy because of its Yield, and High Dividend.
With the Federal Reserve announcing it will continue to push for Long Term Interest rates lower this will crush Chimera.
In the past 52 weeks CIM has traded as high as $4.36, and as low as $2.62.
Not only has CIM lowered its Dividend during this year Span. The Stock is Trading at $2.61 under its 52 week LOW, and is at its Lowest hitting a Low that has not been Seen since March 20th, 2009!
I Would not be Surprised if this Stock Tumbles Down under $2.00.
If it Drops under $2.00 and Under, This would Than be a Stock I would look into Buying as a LONG TERM Investment.
Other than that SELL SELL SELL.